中文摘要：

该文针对当前网管系统（NMS）可靠性评价研究中存在的问题，提出了一种分析NMS运行阶段模块可靠性的方法。该方法首先把NMS中使用的定时报活、模块冗余等可靠性措施组合为3种主要运行场景；然后，运用马尔科夫再生随机Petri网对3种场景进行了建模，定量分析了不同运行场景对模块可靠性的影响，并应用模型得到了模块可用度等重要的可靠性指标。实例表明，NMS模块的运行阶段可靠性取决于自身质量和运行场景两方面的因素，可通过配置场景针对性地进行NMS可靠性设计和指标分配。

英文摘要：

A new method for analyzing module reliability of Network Management System（NMS） in operational phase is proposed to resolve the problem existed in the domain of current NMS reliability evaluation. Firstly, some methods, e.g. periodic survival reports and module redundancy, which is used in NMS are assembled into three major run-time scenarios; Secondly, three scenario are modeled using Markov Regenerative Stochastic Petri Nets （MRSPN）, and the effect which various scenario impose on module reliability is analyzed. Finally, some important reliability index, such as module availability, is concluded with applying the models. Numerical examples show that module reliability depend on both quality itself and run-time in various modules according to the requirement of NMS.