广东省地质灾害较为常见,崩塌、滑坡、泥石流是其中比较严重的3种类型。基于现有的泥石流危险度评价原理和方法,建立了可用于广东省崩塌、滑坡、泥石流灾害危险性的评价模型。以全省88个县级评价单元为基础,根据崩塌、滑坡、泥石流灾害危险度评价结果,将广东省共分为3个危险等级区,其中高度危险区8个县,占总数的9.1%;中度危险区60个县,占总数的68.2%;低度危险区20个县,占总数的22.7%,据此制成广东省崩塌、滑坡、泥石流灾害危险等级图。高度危险区主要位于粤北山区,危险度数值介于0.6~0.72之间;中度危险区连片分布,是全省崩塌、滑坡、泥石流灾害的主体部分,危险度数值介于0.4~0.6之间;低度危险区集中分布在平原区及低平台地区,危险度数值介于0.31~0.4之间。采用1994―2009年广东省防灾减灾年鉴和广东省地质灾害防治规划(2001―2015年)中的统计数据,验证了本文的研究成果与实际情况具有较高的一致性。
Collapses,landslides and debris flows are the main three Geological hazards in Guangdong.On the basis of the existing methodology for debris flow hazard assessment,this paper establishes a system of indexes for assessment of collapse,landslide and debris flow hazards in Guangdong,including assessing index choosing,assessing model establishment and modification,and assessing result analysis.According to the hazardousness assessing results of 88 units at county level,the province can be divided into three classes of hazardous areas.The high hazardous area has 8 counties and districts,accounting for 9.1% of the total,the moderate hazardous areas include 60 counties and districts,accounting for 68.2%,and the low hazardous area has 20 counties and districts,accounting for 22.7%.Accordingly a hazardousness class map of collapse,landslide and debris flow hazards in Guangdong is presented.The areas with values of high hazardousness 0.6-0.72 are mainly located in northern Guangdong,those with moderate hazardousness are the vast part of the province,and those with low hazardousness are located in plains and low terraces.The assessment result is verified with the disaster data during 1994-2009,and the reliability is close to 90%.