本文采用序列Malmquist-Luenberger(SML)指数法估算1998—2008年中国各省环境约束下的TFP增长率。研究发现:考虑环境约束之后,TFP增长对我国经济增长的贡献不足10%,这反映了我国经济粗放增长的现实,技术进步是我国TFP增长的源泉,技术效率呈下降态势;样本区间内TFP增长率呈上升趋势的地区包括北部沿海、东部沿海、长江中游和大西南地区,呈下降趋势的地区包括南部沿海、黄河中游、大西北和东北地区;2005年以来环境约束下的TFP增长率呈明显的上升趋势,表明我国近年出台的环境相关政策对于破解环境问题和转变增长方式产生了积极的效果。回归分析显示,人均收入水平与环境约束下的TFP增长率呈"U"型关系,经济开放度、工业结构中的大中企业比例对TFP增长有正向影响,能源强度、国有企业比例有负向影响。
Applying Sequential Malmquist-Luenberger(SML) productivity index,this paper measured China's provincial total factor productivity(TFP) growth under environment regulation from 1998 to 2008.The major conclusions were as follows: Firstly,China's economic growth mostly depended on the increase of inputs,technical progress was the driving force of productivity improvement,and the technical efficiency was on a downward trend.Secondly,the TFP growth in the northern coast regions,the eastern coast regions,the middle reaches of Yangtze River,and the southwest area were on an upward trend,yet in the southern coast,the middle reaches of Yellow River,the northwest and the northeast regions were on a downward trend.Thirdly,the growth of TFP under environment regulation has been in an upward trend since 2005,which indicated that China's environment policies promulgated in recent years had played active roles in solving environmental problems and promoting changes in the mode of economic growth.Lastly,there existed a U-type relationship between per capita income and TFP index,the economy openness,the proportion of large enterprise in the industrial structure had positive effect on TFP growth,yet the energy intensity,proportion of state-owned enterprises in the industrial structure had negative effect.