中文摘要：

民众担心“退休越晚，养老金财富越少”，因而反对推迟退休年龄。本文在死亡率、退保价值、人口、经济和制度变量的不确定条件下，构建了基本养老金财富的期望精算现值模型，并运用数值模拟不同退休年龄所对应的个人养老金财富。结果表明：个人养老金财富是关于其退休年龄的倒“U”型曲线。推迟退休既可能减少养老金财富，也可能增加，这主要取决于职工的性别和参保年龄。男职工在32岁之前参保，推迟退休会减少养老金财富，32岁之后参保可以增加养老金财富；女职工只要在20岁之后参保，推迟退休都可以增加养老金财富。总体而言，推迟男职工退休年龄不可行，推迟女职工退休年龄可行但空间有限。这主要是由于基本养老金计发公式的精算不平衡会激励提前退休。最后提出了改革的政策建议。

英文摘要：

Most people opposed the deferring of retirement age, worrying their personal pension wealth would be reduced. This paper introduces the risk factors of fertility and withdrawal value, supposes that the demographic, economic and systematic factors as uncertain random variables, and constructs an expected actuarial present value model of basic pension wealth. The results of the data simulation demonstrate that the pension wealth is a conversed U - styled curve. Deferring retirement age may not only reduce pension wealth, but also increase pension wealth, which depends on the workers＇ gender and participation age. Deferring retirement age will re- duce the pension wealth of male retirees if they participate the system before the age of 32, while increase their pension wealth if they participate after the age of 32. It can also increase female workers＇ pension wealth since they join the pension system before the age of 20. In the whole, it is implausible to defer male＇s retirement age, but is plausible to defer female＇s retirement age with limit scope. This dilemma is owed to the basic pension benefit formula＇ s default which would stimulate workers to retire earlier. At last, this paper contributes some reform suggestions.