本文基于2010年人口普查数据,以1981年的中国人口生命表为模型生命表对2010年的人口按龄死亡模式进行修正,测算2010年的中国人口预期寿命,对20世纪80年代以来人口死亡率的变化趋势以及性别模式进行分析。研究结果发现,2010年中国人口的死亡率下降至5.58‰;人口预期寿命达到75岁,其中男性的预期寿命超过73岁,女性预期寿命为78岁;近10年间中国人口预期寿命的增幅超过4岁,高于20世纪80年代以来的任何时期。然而,2010年的人口普查数据中婴幼儿和老年人口存在严重的死亡漏报,现有的经济利益和社会制度因素的制约对人口普查数据质量的提高提出了巨大挑战。偏高的女婴死亡率虽然较2000年有所改善,但依旧存在,对女性的社会歧视仍在威胁中国的人口安全。
Based on population census data in 2010,and using China's population life table of 1981 asmodel life table,this study modified the age specific mortality of Chinese population and estimates the lifeexpectancy of China in 2010. This paper also analyzes the changing trend of population mortality and thegender pattern since 1980 s. Results show that the mortality of Chinese population dropped to 5.58‰ in2010,and life expectancy reached 75 years. In 2010,the life expectancy of males exceeded 73 years,andfemales' reached 78 years. In the last 10 years,China's population life expectancy rose by more than 4years,higher than every ten years in 1980-2000. However,there is severe underreporting on mortality of in-fants and young children and the elderly in the census data of 2010. The restrictions of existing economic in-terests and social institutional factors bring great challenge to the quality improvement of population censusdata. Although the mortality of female infant is lower than 2000,but is still high,social discriminationagainst women still threats the security of Chinese population.