中文摘要：

流域洪水的发生存在一定的周期规律,对其周期性采用谐波分析法进行识别.在此基础上,依据灾害系统理论与洪灾形成规律,系统地研究阜平流域洪水灾害链.研究发现：洪水周期循环链主要表现在链的周期性反应,在时间进程上经过孕育潜伏期、启动期、爆发-持续-衰落期、平静期4个阶段,这4个阶段便构成一个洪水灾害周期;阜平流域洪水的主周期为10年,这与太阳黑子相对数量变化周期基本吻合,且近20年来,洪水灾害成灾周期呈变大态势,其人类活动对洪水周期因子的影响不容忽视.洪水灾害链分析,为人们正确认识流域的洪涝规律、制定合理有效的防洪减灾对策,提供了科学的决策依据.

英文摘要：

The basin flood occurs according to periodical rules,which were identified with harmonic wave methods.On such basis,flood disaster chain in Fuping basin was systematically studied with disaster system theory and the cause for flood disaster.Results show that flood periodic cycle chain is mainly manifested in the period of chain and there are four phases in one flood disaster period,namely latency period,starting period,burst-duration-declining period,and calm period.Main period of flood in Fuping basin is 10 years,which is consistent with the period of sunspot relative quantity variation.In the past 20 years since 1980,the period of flood disaster tends to increase,showing that the effect of human activity on flood period should not be ignored.Research results for flood disaster chain have facilitated the understanding of flood rules,helped the establishment of effective strategies for disaster prevention and reduction,and served as rational foundation for decision making.