中文摘要：

本文利用2000-2015年中国上市公司季度数据，采用贝叶斯估计方法实证研究总投资和未来收益率间的长期关系，并从投资者情绪视角探究了二者间的微观影响机制。实证结果显示：第一，短期内总投资的不断增加导致了未来收益率的下降，并且这种负向作用长期内显著增加；第二，在总投资能预期到现金流冲击的情况下，投资者情绪因素解释了总投资与未来收益率间的负向效应问题。

英文摘要：

This paper uses quarterly data of China＇s listed companies between 2000-2015 and utilizes Bayesian estimation methods in an attempt to study the long-term relationship between aggregate invest- ment and future return rate. Especially, this paper explores the influence mechanism from the perspective of investor sentiment. The empirical results show- firstly, increase in aggregate investment in short term lead to a decline in future return rate. Secondly, under the situation that aggregate investment can be ex- pected to lead to cash flow impact, investor sentiment factors can explain the negative effects between ag- gregate investment and future return rate.