中文摘要：

以便描述并且控制压力分发和磁盘集会在飞机引擎使用了的 bladed 的全部的变丑，表面方法( ERSM )基于以前的确定的分析被生产的被称为极值反应的概率的分析的一个高度有效、精确的方法与有限元素模型一起结果(女性)。在这个工作，许多给非线性的因素调音，例如温度负担，离心的力量和边界条件的动态特征，为模型被考虑。有关于压力分发和全部的变丑的 bladed 磁盘集会的时间的变化模式以一个科学、合理的方法作为概率的分析的输入目标在确定的分析期间被获得，并且同时， bladed 磁盘集会的最大的变丑和压力节点被发现并且拿。不仅他们的可靠性，历史的样品，极端反应表面(ERS ) 和累积概率分发功能而且他们的敏感和效果概率被获得。影响压力分发和 bladed 磁盘集会的全部的变丑的主要因素通过模型的敏感分析被调查。与反应表面方法(RSM ) 和蒙特卡罗模拟(MCS ) 相比，最后，结果证明这条新途径是有效的。

英文摘要：

In order to describe and control the stress distribution and total deformation of bladed disk assemblies used in the aeroengine, a highly efficient and precise method of probabilistic analysis which is called extremum response surface method（ERSM） is produced based on the previous deterministic analysis results with the finite element model（FEM）. In this work, many key nonlinear factors, such as the dynamic feature of the temperature load, the centrifugal force and the boundary conditions, are taken into consideration for the model. The changing patterns with time of bladed disk assemblies about stress distribution and total deformation are obtained during the deterministic analysis, and at the same time, the largest deformation and stress nodes of bladed disk assemblies are found and taken as input target of probabilistic analysis in a scientific and reasonable way. Not only their reliability, historical sample, extreme response surface（ERS） and the cumulative probability distribution function but also their sensitivity and effect probability are obtained. Main factors affecting stress distribution and total deformation of bladed disk assemblies are investigated through the sensitivity analysis of the model. Finally, compared with the response surface method（RSM） and the Monte Carlo simulation（MCS）, the results show that this new approach is effective.