中文摘要：

极端气候条件往往会诱发各种地质灾害,而降雨型滑坡的发生则与极值降雨关系密切。为了有效预防和控制汛期滑坡灾害的发生,定量评估滑坡灾害造成的人员与经济风险,讨论了汛期极值降雨条件下滑坡概率的分析方法。利用Gumbel极值分布理论,以三峡库区巴东县1990～2006年日降雨量为基础资料,采用统计分析方法,求取研究区在汛期（6月中旬至9月）最大一次连续降雨量、多日累积最大降雨量的极值及其分布曲线;在此基础上,以研究区一个滑坡实例为对象,综合采用渗流模拟、稳定性分析和基于蒙特卡罗的滑坡概率分析方法,讨论了降雨极值及其重现期成果分别在降雨新生型滑坡和降雨复活型滑坡概率分析中的应用思路与方法。结果表明,随着重现期的增加,一次降雨过程的降雨量也增加;随着降雨日数的增加,具有不同重现期降雨事件的累积降雨量均会增加,且重现期越长,累积降雨量值会越大;降雨极值曲线分别应用于降雨新生型和降雨复活型滑坡概率分析的思路是可行并有效的。

英文摘要：

The occurrences of landslides usually have a good relationship with rainfall, especially with extreme rainfall events. Based on the theory of Gumbel Extreme Distribution, rainfall precipitation of Badong county in the Three Gorges Reservoir from 1990 to 2006 was statistically analyzed in the paper. Some special extreme values and distribution curves for rainfalls in flood seasons were obtained, including the maximum accumulative daily rainfall, the greatest accumulation rainfall. It is concluded that： with the increase of return period, the accumulation rainfall of one rainfall course can increase; with the increase of rainy days, the accumulation rainfall of one rainfall event with different return period can increase. And longer the return period is, greater the rainfall can be. Based on the above conclusions, the results are respectively used to re-active and newly active landslides trigged by rainfall. The method of probability of the landslide is further discussed in this paper.