中文摘要：

文章对1995—2010年天津市能源消费碳排放进行分析,基于对数平均迪氏指数法（LMDI）,对碳排放进行因素分解实证研究,并进行情景分析,寻求天津市碳减排对策。研究发现,虽然人均GDP效应、人口效应以及能源强度效应贡献量相对较大,但结构效应对于天津碳排放的影响也不容忽视,其对于能源消费碳排放的拉动或减缓作用与低碳能源比重、第三产业比重的大小有很强的关联性。情景分析进一步表明优化产业及能源结构对碳减排的积极作用。

英文摘要：

This article analyzed the energy consumption and carbon emissions in Tianjin during 1995—2010 and studied the decomposition of carbon emission factors by the logarithmic mean Divisia index method （ LMDI） , then analyzed by sce-nario and sought strategies to reduce carbon emission .The results showed that although the effects of Per Capita GDP , pop-ulation and energy intensity on carbon emission are great , energy and industrial structure cannot be neglected .There is a strong correlation between structure effect , including the proportion of low carbon energy , the tertiary industry , and carbon emission.Scenario analysis further showed that optimizing the industrial and energy structure has positive effect on carbon emissions reduction .