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中文摘要：
对于基于EBAT的团队仿真训练,情景的有效生成直接决定了实际的训练效果。为解决随机条件下,考虑关键事件因素的情景生成问题。在对情景生成过程建模的基础上,引入训练目标、事件、关键事件等要素,提出情景贝叶斯网络模型。基于贝叶斯网络推理方法,建立情景贝叶斯网络推理的数学模型,并提出启发式推理方法。针对情景案例进行建模及推理实现,并对结果进行分析。结果表明,关键事件重要程度影响下的情景贝叶斯网络建模及启发式推理,能直接提高关键事件对情景生成结果的控制能力,从而使情景生成结果更为有效。
英文摘要：
According to the team simulation training based on EBAT,the scenario is one of the most important factors to influence the training effect.In order to solve the problem of scenario generation under the stochastic conditions with the key events,a scenario bayesian network with training objects,events and key events was designed by modeling the scenario generation process.Applying the bayesian network inference approach,the mathematical model and the heuristic inference algorithm for the scenario bayesian network were proposed.The scenario bayesian network model and the inference algorithm were implemented with the scenario cases.The analytical result shows that the scenario bayesian network model and the inference algorithm with the key events,can improve the control of the scenario generation process,and makes the result of scenario generation more effective.
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