首先结合研究区实际对生态系统服务价值年际单价进行了修订,根据昆山市1985-2006年土地利用详查数据,分析了昆山市生态系统服务价值的变化特征,并利用STIRPAT模型对生态系统服务价值变化及其驱动因子进行了对数回归模拟。结果表明:(1)从总体上来看,昆山生态系统服务价值在1985-2006年总体呈减少的趋势,但是存在阶段性特征,其减少幅度也呈现差异性。1985-1997年阶段持续不断减少,年平均减少率达到9.51%;1998-2006年阶段平均减少幅度小,年均减少1.05%,但是存在很大波动,这一阶段有5年生态服务价值反而是增长的。(2)生态系统服务价值的变化过程与社会经济发展具有密不可分的联系,产业结构变化是昆山市生态系统服务价值变化的最主要因子,在1985-2006年阶段昆山生态系统服务价值变化的主要驱动因子是第二产比重、第三产比重、外资产值比重。为了更好的改善当地的生态环境质量和提高生态系统服务价值,还应采取一些措施,比如:适当提高林地覆盖率;尽量减少农田化肥施用量,减小点源污染力度I力Ⅱ大污水、工业废气和工业固废排放管理力度,提高污水、废气等排放达标水平等。但是如何协调经济发展与生态环境保护的关系,既保护好生态环境又不限制经济的发展,这有待进一步研究。
According to the actual conditions of the study region,the yearly unit price of ecosystem service value was revised,and then based on the land use data of Kunshan from 1985 to 2006, the changing charac-teristics of ecosystem service value of Kunshan was analyzed. The ecosystem service value and the driving factors were fitted using STIRPAT model. The result showed: (1) The general trend of the ecosystem service value of Kunshan was decreasing from 1985 to 2006, but there was stage differentiation. The continuously fast decreasing speed occurred from 1985 to 1997,and annual rate of decrease reached 9.51%;How-ever,the annual rate of decrease was 1.05% only from 1998 to 2006 ,but the change range showed obvious fluctuations,and the ecosystem service value was rising in five years. (2) There were close relationship be-tween the change of ecosystem value and the development of social economy, the change of industries struc-ture was the key factor of the change of ecosystem service value in Kunshan from 1985 to 2006. The proportion of the second industry, the proportion of the third industry and the proportion of foreign investment output value were the main driving factors of the decrease of ecosystem service value. The relationship be-tween those factors and the change of ecosystem service value of Kunshan was negative correlation of log. There are some ways which can improve the quality of the local ecological environment and the ecosystem service value, such as:appropriately improving the forest coverage rate, minimizing the application rate of chemical fertilizers, decreasing the strength of point pollution, strengthening the emission management a-bout the waste water, industrial waste material, and improving the emission standard of the waste water and the industrial waste gas, and so on. Further research is needed to coordinate the relationship between the economy development and the protection of ecological environment in the future.