中文摘要：

为了使传统灰色GM（1,1）模型的背景值和灰度值更加协调,对原始数据序列和模型背景值进行优化。基于优化的灰色GM（1,1）模型,选取2000—2014年我国农民消费水平数据,预测未来几年我国农民消费水平。结果表明：优化GM（1,1）模型的背景值能减小预测误差,提高预测准确精度,非常适合进行中短期预测;同时,未来几年我国农民消费水平将继续保持稳步增长,到2020年我国农民消费水平将达到19 303元,这将有利于实现我国经济稳步增长。

英文摘要：

To make the the background and the gray value of traditional gray GM（1,1） model more coordinated,this paper does some optimization on the background value. Based on the optimized grey GM（1,1） model,this paper selects the level of consumption of Chinese farmers from 2000 to 2014,and predicts the consumption level of Chinese farmers in the next few years. The results show that,GM（1,1） optimization model can reduce the prediction error,and improve the prediction accuracy,so it is suitable for short-term prediction; at the same time,the consumption level of peasants over the next few years will keep a steady growth,and it will reach 19 303 yuan by 2020,which is beneficial to achieve steady economy growth in China.