中文摘要：

现以唐乃亥水文站实测年径流系列为例,尝试用谐波分析方法模拟和预测年径流量。结果表明可以用谐波分析方法很好地模拟年径流系列,并且可以明显减少谐波数目而满足95%的拟合度。对于2～3年的预测期而言,谐波分析方法可以提供较满意的预测结果,但对于更长的预测期,则预测效果较差。

英文摘要：

An annual runoff forecast method based on harmonic analysis was investigated and examined using annual runoff data （1956-2007） of Tangnaihai hydrological station in the upper reaches of the Yellow River.Annual runoff could be perfectly modeled by harmonic waves.For forecast term of 2-3 years,harmonic analysis method may give very good forecast of annual runoff,but for longer forecast term,it cannot give accurate prediction.