根据陕南汉江上游历史时期以来的洪水灾害史料和水文站记录,统计分析了189BC-2008AD近2200年间的洪水发生频率,并对此时间段内气候变化进行分析。结果表明:清后期到现代,是汉江上游洪水发生频率最高的时期,洪水发生频率为18.94次/50a;其次是明末至清前中期和唐末期,洪水发生频率分别为6.5次/50a和6次/50a;再次是西汉初、北宋中期至南宋前中期、明代,是3次/50a左右的频率。洪灾的出现往往与气候的异常波动有密切关系,历史时期,汉江上游的洪水在气候冷暖交替变化时期较为频繁,气候平稳期出现频率较低。
Hanjiang River is the largest river in Shaanxi Province,and its drainage area is 5.91×104 km2.The river valleys in the basin are mostly U-shaped,where there is the exposed bedrock and deep-narrowed river channel with torrential stream,so the channel storage capacity is low.Heavy rain and rainstorm flood disasters occur frequently because of the steep slopes,torrential stream and rainfall confluence in the Hanjiang River Basin.As a water source of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project,the change of hydrological and meteorological conditions in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River are not only closely related to the ecological environment and economic development in south Shaanxi Province,but also are of greatly importance to provide water supply for Beijing and Tianjin cities through the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project.Only the law and change of the hydrological regime are deeply revealed can we maintain the sustainable utilization of water resources and achieve the goals of conserving water resources,controlling flood,relieving flood disasters and developing the society and economy rapidly in the Hanjiang River Basin.The previous studies on the Hanjiang River focused mainly on water resources,characteristics of water environment,effect of climate change on runoff,etc.In recent years,more and more researches focused on the effects of water diversion projects on the ecological environment in the Hanjiang River Basin under the attraction of implementing the South-to-North Water Transfer Project.In this paper,a detailed statistics of flood frequency in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River since the historical periods is carried out based on the information recorded in historical documents and the data from the hydrologic stations along the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River,and the characteristics of flood events and their occurring laws as well as their correlations with climate change are analyzed.According to statistic results of the historical data and records from the local