中文摘要：

在塔里木河流域农业供水成本水价基础上，基于已有研究的流域水资源费和环境水价模型与相关资料，首先构建了流域基于资源环境水价的未来农业水价；然后，利用流域农业水价和灌水量资料构建了流域农业水价的需求效应模型，分析了未来塔河流域基于资源环境水价的未来农业水价的节水效应，研究结果表明：基于资源环境水价的未来农业水价调整大幅提高了农业水价的节水效应，但环境水价更侧重于实现流域生态用水保障的经济补偿；而且，未来农业水价调整与高效节水技术的结合是促进塔河流域未来农业水价节水效应的关键；尤其是，未来农业水价的需求效应分析事关流域用水户的水价承受力和粮食安全问题，是未来塔河流域农业水价调整需要重点探讨的内容。

英文摘要：

According to the models of water fees and environment water prices and relevant data, on the basis of the cost price of water supply, this paper further calculates the future agricultural water price based on water resources fee and environment water prices. Then the paper establishes the model of the effect of agricultural water price on the quantity of irrigation water in Tarim River Basin by using the data of agricultural water prices and the amount of irrigation water use in the basin, and it is used to analyze the effect of the future adjustment of agricultural water prices based on different agricultural saving water prices two elastic parameters of de- mand of water prices（adjusted and unadjusted） ~ the results indicate that the effect of the adjustment of the future agricultural water on the quantity of irrigational water is very high, but the function of the environmental water price is to carry out the economical compensation of the environmental water use to protect the ecological environment in Tarim River Basin. It is the key approach to improving the effects of the future agricultural water prices by the cooperation of the adjustment of water prices with the high effec- tive water-saving techniques. Especially the research of the effect of saving water of the future agricultural water price is related to the safety of food production and the issue of the farmer＇s carrying capacity of water prices, is the key contents for the future adjustment of agricultural water priees to discuss, so that the research can be used to guide the future a~ricultural wztor nri~qncr