中文摘要：

在对广西北部湾经济区水资源可利用量、水资源开发利用现状和人均需水量进行计算分析的基础上采用最大可承载人口数量建立水资源承载能力评价模型，并采用水资源超载度指标对广西北部湾经济区2005-2030年的水资源承载能力进行演变分析。结果表明，在水资源合理利用前提下，广西北部湾经济区水资源承载能力总体较好，但北海市和南宁市出现水资源超载现象；在水资源极限利用前提下，广西北部湾经济区水资源承载能力总体富余程度较高，但南宁市在2020年后出现水资源超载现象。

英文摘要：

This article adopts the maximum carrying population to develop a model of water resources carrying capacity in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf economic zone, considering its water resources available, existing development and utilization of water resources, and water demand per capita. We also present an evolution analysis of this capacity over the period of 2005-2030 using an indicator of water resources overload degree. The results show that on the premise of rational use, the water resources carrying capacity in this zone is good overall, but that in Beihai city and Nanning city is already in overload. On the premise of maximum utilization, the capacity is overall in much surplus, but it will be overloaded in Nanning after 2020.