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中文摘要：
以舟山市网箱养殖大黄鱼为研究对象,根据对2001-2005年间网箱养殖大黄鱼发病情况的观察分析、养殖水域环境因子的监测及其收集的气象资料,对大黄鱼溃疡病的发生规律和养殖环境的状况进行了全面分析,结果表明大黄鱼溃疡病的发生不仅与季节有关,而且还与环境因子的状况密切相关。在此基础上,进一步研究了环境因子对大黄鱼溃疡病发生的影响程度和影响方式,筛选出与大黄鱼溃疡病发生密切相关的环境因子,从而建立了网箱养殖大黄鱼溃疡病发生的预报模型。经检验该模型对预报大黄鱼的溃疡病是否发生及发生的程度有高度显著的效果。用该模型对舟山市2005年大黄鱼溃疡病的发生情况进行了预报,预报的正确率达到81.2%。为能有效、适时地对发病季节大黄鱼疾病的控制,还同时给出了网箱养殖大黄鱼发病季节溃疡病的预报模型。
英文摘要：
The incidence of ulcer diseases of large yellow croaker （Pseudosciaena crocea） in the cage culture was examined, and environmental factors of surrounding sea waters and weather information were surveyed in Zhoushan, during 2001 -2005. Based on the data obtained, the occurrence conditions of ulcer disease and the relationship between the disease and environmental factors were investigated. The results showed that the occurrence of ulcer disease was not only related to seasons but also to the environmental factors. By means of the multivariate statistical analysis, the effects of the environmental factors on the disease were studied. The environmental factors highly related to the occurrence of ulcer disease were selected to set up models for forecasting incidence. Statistical tests showed that the forecast model was of significant efficiency for predicting the disease occurrence and the scales of diseases. The accuracy of the model reached up to 81.2% when it was used for predicting the ulcer disease of 2005 in Zhoushan. The other model was also constructed for forecasting incidence in the occurrence period in order to prevent ulcer disease timely and efficiently.
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