中文摘要：

针对调水量与调水时机不确定的问题,建立基于供水系统全局风险最小化的多水库联合模拟优化调度模型,采用并行多种群混合进化的粒子群算法（PMSE-PSO）全局优化确定满足各水库供水要求的水库群调水规则和供水规则,并优化确定调水水库的最大调水规模,最后根据优化规则及调水规模进行水库调度计算,进而求出各计算时段调水量以及各水库区用水户供水量。本模型从缺水区域风险最优化的角度,优化确定水库供水限制线、调水控制线和调水水库的最大调水规模,模拟各时段实际调水量和不同用水户供水优先次序的供水量,实现了多水库联合调度的技术突破,为水库调度决策部门提供了一个新的调度思路。通过高关-短港水库灌区的实例应用,证明了该模型的科学性和有效性。

英文摘要：

In view of the uncertainty of the time of water transfer and water transfer quantity, joint simulation and optimal scheduling model for multi-reservoir based on global risk minimization of water supply system is developed. PMSE-PSO is adopted to optimize and determine rules of water transfer and regulation of water supply, which meet the requirements of the water supply of the reser- voirs. And the largest water transfer scale is also confirmed and finally calculation of reservoir operation is carried according to opti- mization rules and water transfer scale. After then, water transfer quantity and water supply of each water department for each cal- culation period. The model is used to optimize the limit line of water supply, control line of water diversion and the largest water transfer scale of reservoir to solve practical water transfer quantity and quantity of water users in the point of view of risk minimiza- tion in water shortage area, which achieves technological breakthroughs in the form of joint dispatching of reservoir group and pro- vides reservoir regulating decision department a new scheduling method. At last, the model is applied to the Gaoguan-Duangang res- ervoir and it is proved that the model is scientific and effective.