中文摘要：

本文利用金融危机爆发前近十三年的中国财政收支季度数据,系统地分析了财政收支结构和经济增长之间的关系;并利用Panel数据分析方法处理了经济数据的季度效应问题。通过构建理论模型和实证分析,本文得出以下结论：固定效应建模表明经济增长有显著的季节效应;财政收支与经济增长负相关,相对于财政收入,财政支出对经济增长影响更大;财政收支分项建模表明财政收支分项对经济发展有负效应。通过对经济高速增长的10余年财政收支和经济增长关系的研究,为后金融危机时代如何制定更详尽、准确的财政政策提供了量化依据。

英文摘要：

This paper,based on the monthly fiscal data from 1995 to 2007 in China,had a systematic analysis of the link between the fiscal structure and economic growth,and also explored season effect of economic data by using the panel data model.On the basis of the theoretical model building and empirical analyses,the conclusions that were reached are as follows： the fixed-effect modeling shows the significant season effect of the economic growth;the relationship between the fiscal revenue expenditure and economic growth is negative.Comparing with fiscal revenue,expenditure produces more effect on the economic growth;the negative effect of the fiscal revenue expenditure items on the economic growth is also found.