中文摘要：

为了探究君主素质、宗教约束和气候冲击对农民起义的影响机理,构建中国君主面板数据集,以君主为横截面,时间跨度为前221年至1911年,并使用随机效应的面板负二项回归模型作为基准模型。研究表明：在秦朝到清朝这个历史阶段,君主的个人素质会显著影响农民起义,盛世能减少农民起义的发生;宗教约束中的佛教能缓解农民起义,而基督教则更容易导致农民起义的发生;严重的自然灾害所导致的严重饥荒能诱发农民起义;其他变量的影响不显著或不稳健。

英文摘要：

In order to explore the influencing mechanism of monarchal capacity, religion and climate shock on the peasant uprising,we use a monarchal panel dataset from 221 B.C. to 1911 A.D. and a negative binomial regression modet of the random effect. Results show that in Chinese feudal society peri- od （the Qin Dynasty -the Qing Dynasty）, while the monarchal capacity could significantly affect peas- ant uprisings, the flourishing age may help reduce this phenomenon. Buddhism may help relieve peasant uprisings and Christianity may aggravate it. Severe famine caused by natural disasters may induce peasant uprisings. In the meanwhile, other variables were not significant or not robust.