中文摘要：

研究利用1992-2013年江苏省酸雨观测资料和大豆产量资料,分析酸雨对淮北地区大豆产量的影响。首先分析了淮北地区大豆生育期内酸雨发生的时空分布特征;采用拉格朗日插值法计算了酸雨年的大豆期望产量,得到酸雨致灾损失率;然后通过对大豆酸雨灾损率与生育期降水p H做相关分析,筛选大豆生长受酸雨影响最敏感的生育阶段,构建基于生育期降水p H的产量损失模型;最后,依据酸雨灾害损失率和酸雨发生频率确定风险指数模型,根据风险指数大小对淮北地区大豆生长开展酸雨影响风险区划。结果表明：2007年以来,淮北地区大豆生育期内酸雨发生频率自西向东逐渐增加,且有逐年下降趋势;生育时期内降水p H除淮安外皆小于5.6,2000年以后徐州、淮安大豆生育期降水pH持续下降,至2009年开始回升;大豆受酸雨影响平均灾损率为8%～20%,徐州的平均灾损率高于淮安;大豆成熟前各生育期的降水p H与产量灾损率呈非线性显著负相关,即灾损率随着生育期降水pH的增加而呈曲线下降,以开花～结荚期和播种～出苗期最显著;酸雨对大豆生长影响的风险分区以灌云、灌南以及睢宁县为风险高值区,徐州、泗洪和淮安为风险低值区,其它地区为中影响区。

英文摘要：

Based on the observation data of acid rain and soybean yield data during the period of 1992 to 2013 in Jiangsu province, we analyzed the effect of acid rain on the soybean yield in the areas north of the Huaihe river. Firstly, the temporal and spatial distribution characters of acid rain in growth period of soybean were analyzed. And the soybean loss rate suffering from acid rain was obtained by calculating the expected yields of soybean in acid rain years using Lagrange interpolation method. Then the most sensitive time affected by acid rain during soybean growth period was determined by analyzing the correlation between the loss rate and pH of precipitation during growth period and a yield loss model was constructed based on pH. Finally, the risk intensity index was determined on the basis of the acid rain disaster loss rate and the frequency of acid rain and this index was used to risk zoning in huaibei area. The results showed that the acid rain frequency in the growth period of soybean in Huaibei areas increased and there was a downward trend year by year since 2007. The pH of precipitation in the growth period were less than 5.6 in all areas except Huaian city. After 2000, the precipitation pH in soybean growth period of Xuzhou and Huaian city continued to decline and began to rise since 2009. The average damage rate of soybean affected by acid rain was between 8% -20% in huaibei area and this rate in Huaian was higher than that in Xuzhou. The precipitation pH of soybean growth period before the maturity had a significant nonlinear negative correlation with yield damage rate, that is, the loss rate of the damage rate decreased with the increasing of pH in the growth period especially in the flowering and seeding stage. Guanyun, Guannan and Suining county were the high risk area where the acid rain had greater effect on soybean growth. Xuzhou, Sihong and Huaian belonged to low risk areas, and other areas were the middle risk areas.