晋陕蒙毗邻区域是由半湿润区向半干旱区变化的过渡地带,也是典型的气候变化敏感区.基于历史洪涝灾害资料的整理和分析,利用最小二乘法和小波分析等方法,从灾害的频次、县次和强度进行时空格局研究.结果表明:汉至民国共有洪涝灾害285 a,共835县次,明清集中了总年数的69.2%,清至民国集中了总县数的71.3%.秋季和夏季是洪涝灾害频次最多、地域最广的季节.历史洪涝灾害呈波动上升趋势,经历了平缓—波动增加—快速上升3个阶段.第1个活跃期在唐至北宋时期,明朝以来,频次和县次均越来越高,清至民国时期形成第2个活跃期.灾害演化过程中有着15~18 a,26~30 a,3~8 a 3种尺度周期.历史洪涝灾害空间差异明显,重心不断迁移,总县次中轻度灾害占32.58%,中度灾害占53.53%,重度灾害占13.89%.人口众多的榆林、延安为灾害的高频中心,伊金霍洛旗、方山县为低频中心.
Jin-Shaan-Meng adjacent area is a transition zone from semihumid region to semiarid region, and a sensitive region of climate change.Based on reorganizing and analyzing of the historical documents about histori- cal flood disaster in Jin-Shaan-Meng adjacent area, in the light of the methods of least squares and wavelet anal- ysis, spatiotemporel distribution of the frequency, county-times and intensity have been analyzed.The results show that there were 285 years of the historical flood disaster in Jin-Shaan-Meng adjacent area and 835 counties suf- fered from Han Dynasty to Republic of China.69.2% of the disaster occurrence was in Ming and Qing Dynasties, and 71.3% of counties suffered in Qing and Republic of China. Autumn and summer are seasons when disasters frequently occur.The historical flood disaster presents a rising trend, experiencing three stages, namely gentle fluc- tuating, rapid fluctuating and rapid increasing.The Tang Dynastiy and Northern Song Dynasty is the first historical flood disaster activities period, and the high frequency periods of historical flood disaster occurred form Ming Dy- nasty, Qing dynasty and Republic of China is the second historical flood disaster activities period.Wavelet analysis shows that historical flood disaster cycle is 15--18 a,26--30 a and 3--8 a.The spatial distribution the historical flood disaster varies distinctly, and the core has a shift in history period. Of the total disaster-stricken counties, the mild disasters account for 32.58%, moderate disasters account for 53.53%, and severe disasters account for 13. 89%.Yulin and Yan'an where there are a large population are the high-frequency disaster center,while Zhum Ge-er Banner and Fangshan counties are the low-frequency disaster center.