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中文摘要：
针对应急抢险过程中资源需求与供应不匹配的问题，通过定义应急抢险过程GERT网络的基本单元，建立了一种综合考虑灾害自身演化过程及外界作用相互关系的应急抢险过程GERT网络，设计了求解不同资源配置情况下突发事件状态转移概率的极大熵模型；研究了应急抢险过程GERT网络的简化性质，给出了基于GERT网络的应急抢险过程资源最优配置的求解算法。为应急资源配置提供了定性与定量结合的分析框架与工具，为灾害发展态势的预测及其资源配置提供了新的研究方法和研究思路。
英文摘要：
To solve the problem of imbalance of resource demand and supply in emergency process, this paper redefines the elementary cell of GERT network in emergency process, establishes the GERT combining the natural evolution of disaster and the action of emergency rescue, designs the maximum entropy model for solving the emergency state shift probability, simplify the GERT net- work and proposes the algorithm for optimal allocation of resources. This research provides the frame- work and tools for the allocation of resources in the way of qualitative and quantitative analysis. Meanwhile, it offers a new methods and ideas for the forecasting and evaluation of the disaster evolu- tionary tendency.
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