中文摘要：

结合阿姆河盆地最新地质资料和勘探成果,通过成藏要素和油气聚集规律分析,以储集层为核心划分成藏组合,针对各成藏组合进行资源潜力和地质风险评价,最后应用资源-地质风险概率双因素法优选有利成藏组合。在阿姆河盆地上白垩统赛诺曼—土伦阶砂岩、下白垩统欧特里夫—阿尔布阶砂岩、上侏罗统卡洛夫—牛津阶碳酸盐岩和中下侏罗统砂岩等主力储集层内划分出10个成藏组合,采用蒙特卡洛模拟法计算得到阿姆河盆地待发现油气资源量可达3.308×109 t,其中天然气占98%以上。参考对储集层、圈闭、运移和保存等成藏要素的地质风险评价结果,应用资源-地质风险概率双因素法进行有利成藏组合的评价和优选。共划分出2个Ⅰ类成藏组合,1个Ⅱa类成藏组合,2个Ⅱb类成藏组合,3个Ⅲ类成藏组合,1个Ⅳa类和1个Ⅳc类成藏组合。综合分析认为阿姆河盆地最有利的勘探领域是位于木尔加布坳陷内的上侏罗统卡洛夫—牛津阶碳酸盐岩储集层。

英文摘要：

Based on the newest geological data and exploration achievements and the analysis of hydrocarbon accumulation elements and distribution rules of oil and gas, the hydrocarbon plays are divided according to the reservoirs in the Amu Darya basin, central Asia. The hydrocarbon plays are evaluated in terms of resources potential and geologic risk, and the favorable hydrocarbon plays are selected using the double factors method of resources-geological risks. Ten hydrocarbon plays have been divided into in the major reservoirs, including the Cenomanian to Turonian sandstones of the Upper Cretaceous, the Hauterivian to Albian sandstones of the Lower Cretaceous, the Callovian to Oxfordian carbonates of the Upper Jurassic, and the Middle-Lower Jurassic sandstones. The undiscovered petroleum resources of the plays, evaluated by the Monte Carlo method, are about 3 308 million tons, in which gas accounts for more than 98%. Considering the geological risks evaluation of the key hydrocarbon elements of reservoir, trap, migration and preservation, the favorable plays are evaluated and selected using the double factors method of resources-geological risks： two plays of class I, one play of class IIa, two plays of class IIb, three plays of class III, one play of class IVa, and one play of class IVc. The most favorable exploration objectives are the carbonate reservoirs of the Upper Jurassic Callovian-Oxfordian in the Murgab depression.