中文摘要：

大型风力发电机组的设备维修与更换的费用昂贵，因此及时准确地对风电机组运行状态进行评估，可有效节约检修维护成本。为此，提出一种基于状态参数趋势预测的大型风电机组运行状态模糊综合评价策略。首先分析并归纳大型风电机组的重要运行状态参数，采用层次分析法构建出评价模型，在状态参数的劣化度计算中结合模糊趋势预测策略，然后应用模糊隶属度加权进行逐层评价结论的综合，在总体评价结论的综合策略上对传统方法进行有益的改进。算例表明，与常规模糊评价策略相比，提出策略更具合理性，有助于及时发现早期故障隐患，可为风电场合理安排机组的调度运行与检修维护计划提供参考。

英文摘要：

Since the cost of maintenance and replacement for large wind turbines is expensive, the accurate assessment of the operating state of wind turbines can save the maintenance cost effectively. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation strategy for the operating condition of large-scale wind turbines based on trend prediction was proposed. Firstly, important parameters and the operating state of large-scale wind turbines were analyzed. Then, an evaluation model based on analytic hierarchy was established. Before calculating the inferior degree for condition variables, a fuzzy trend remedying strategy was presented, which can predict the condition changing trend. In the comprehensive strategy for the overall evaluation conclusion, the lowest grade item with its degree greater than zero was adopted. Compared with the traditional strategy, the proposed strategy can improve the assessment results, and help to find the problems in a timely manner. The research can provide reference for planning the maintenance and operating schemes of wind farms.