城市群作为推进城镇化的主体形态,在区域城镇化发展中发挥着重要的作用.本文采用主成分分析、马尔科夫链、空间自相关等方法,分析了中原城市群2000、2005、2010、2013年各个县市的城镇化水平时空演变状况.得到的主要结论有:(1)居于较高城镇化水平以及较低城镇化水平的县市稳定性很强,城镇化水平变化幅度小.(2)城镇化水平较高的区域逐步扩大,低水平区域逐渐减小.高城镇化水平区域主要位于中原城市群的中部地区以及西北部的部分地区,低水平县市分布在西南部区域以及东部的部分区域.(3)城镇化水平高高集聚区基本位于中原城市群的中部地区,低低集聚区主要分布在中原城市群东部区域.(4)基础条件、区域相互作用、产业结构是形成中原城市群县域城镇化时空演变结果的主要原因.
As the subject morphology of urbanization, urban agglomeration plays an important role in the regional development of urbanization. This paper studies spatial-temporal evolution of the county urbanization in Central Plains Agglomeration since 2000, using principal component analysis, Markov chains and spatial autocorrelation analysis methods. The main results are: first, the counties with the higher urbanization level and lower urbanization level have strong stability, but the change of the urbanization level is small. Second, from the spatial distribution point of view, the areas of high urbanization level have gradually expanded, while the areas of low urbanization level have decreased. The counties with the high urbanization level are mainly in central of Central Plains Agglomeration and part of the northwest region, and the counties with the low urbanization level are mainly distributed in the southwest and part of the eastern region in Central Plains Agglomeration. Third, using spatial autocorrelation techniques, the results show that there is significant local spatial autocorrelation in the county urbanization in the Central Plains Agglomeration. The main concentration of the high urbanization level region is in the central areas, while the low urbanization level counties show a very concentrated distribution in the eastern region in Central Plains Agglomeration obviously. Finally, basic conditions, regional interactions, and industrial structure are the important reasons for understanding the spatial-temporal evolution of the county urbanization in Central Plains Agglomeration.