中文摘要：

在对陆浑水库经验性洪水预报模型介绍的基础上,根据历史数据及流域地貌信息确定了模型参数,对1975-2011年25场洪水的计算结果与实测值进行了对比,同时对2003-2011年的7场洪水预报结果与黄委水文局小花间洪水预报模型预报结果进行了对比。结果表明：两模型模拟结果精度相差不大,都能满足预报精度要求,7场洪水小花间洪水预报模型模拟结果整体效果稍好,尤其是洪水过程与实测过程比较吻合；经验性洪水预报模拟结果稍差,但误差在可接受范围之内。两个模型都具有一定实用性,建议两模型联合运用,将小花间洪水预报模型的洪水预报结果作为指导水库防洪调度的主要依据,经验模型的预报结果作为参考。

英文摘要：

The empirical flood forecasting mode was introduced, whose parameters were determined according to the historical data and geomorphological information. The results of 25 floods simulated with the empirical flood forecasting model were compared with the observed data, and the forecasting results of 7 floods during 2003-2011 were also compared with those of the Xiaohuajian Flood Forecasting Model, indicating that the accuracy of the two models was similar and met the requirements for forecasting accuracy. The results of the empirical model were a little more inadequate than those of the Xiaohuajian Model for the 7 floods. However, the two models both worked in a practicable function and could be combined together for better application. The results from the Xiaohuajian Flood Forecasting Model can be used to guide reservoir flood control and those from the empirical method can serve as a reference.