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中文摘要：
利用我国现有尾矿库溃坝事故统计资料，对事故发生趋势进行了分析，并从概率分析角度出发，基于贝叶斯估计方法对我国尾矿库溃坝事故风险进行定量分析，建立了尾矿库溃坝事故发生概率模型，对未来49a内的可能的溃坝事故发生年数进行了预测。分析认为，我国尾矿库溃坝事故多年发生概率比较低，但年内发生次数却呈现上升趋势。因此，需加大矿山安全管理力度，对中小型和废弃尾矿库加强监管，以减小未来发生尾矿库溃坝事故的概率。
英文摘要：
This paper intends to introduce its author＇s work on an approach to the probability analysis of tailings dam-break accidents based on Bayesian estimation method by using the statistic information of such accidents collected since 1960 in China. In proceeding with our research, we have, first of all, made a quantitative risk analysis on the tailings dam-break accidents in China, and, then, developed a probability analysis model of tailings dam-break accidents by using the Bayesian estimation method from the point of view of probability analysis. With the help of the estimation model, it has become possible to predict the rough number of tailings dam-break accidents likely to take place in the future 49 years. Its accuracy was discussed and it was considered that the possible number of years of tailings dam-break accidents would occur could be a little more than that of the evaluation result given by the model. So, it is necessary to enforce the safety management actions and pay more attention to the safety problems of small, medium and disused tailings dams.
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