垂直专业化分工体系下中国制成品出口有相当比例来自于国外增加值,传统贸易统计方法不仅存在"统计假象",且可能会为贸易政策制定带来误导。本文利用WIOD国家间投入产出表,借鉴Wang等(2013)总贸易核算法,从国家、行业及双边贸易部门层面对1995-2011年中国制成品出口欧盟的增加值结构进行分解。结果表明:期间国内增加值率呈下滑趋势,且资本技术密集型行业低于劳动密集型行业;国外增加值中间品重复计算比重上升,显示我国融入全球生产网络程度不断加深,但中欧贸易差额被高估,且主要制造业部门目前仍处在全球价值链低端位置。
Under the vertical specialization system, the manuiactured goods export of China had high percentage of foreign value added, the traditional trade statistical method existed "statistical illusion" and might mislead trade policy. This paper decomposed valued added of China's export to EU from the level of country, industry and bilateral trade, by using Wang et al. (2013) gross export accounting based on the World Input and Output Database table from 1995 to 2011. The result showed that the DVA of manufactured exports to EU had a downward trend, the capital and technology intensive industries had lower ratio than that of labor intensive industry. The rise of intermediate double counting ratio showed that China had increased integration with global production network, but Sino-Euro trade balance was overestimated, and main manufacturing sectors were still in the low position of GVC.