中文摘要：

警犬城市的生长模型被用来模仿未来城市的生长模式并且在沈阳城市里在开发的不同条件下面探索城市的开发的潜在的环境影响，中国。警犬模型与从 TM 卫星图象的一个时间系列提取的历史的数据(19882004 ) 被校准，并且未来生长外面被投射到 2030 假定三种不同政策情形：(1 ) 当前的趋势情形(情形 CT ) ，(2 ) 地区性的政策和城市的计划情形(情形 PP ) ，并且(3 ) 环境保护情形(情形 EP ) 。情形分析证明城市的生长将在 2016 以后在发展模式和可持续性与重要差别在所有政策情形下面加速。在情形 CT 下面的城市的开发将在另外的二种情形下面比那导致资源陆地的实质的损失，并且城市的风景模式将逐渐地复杂、分散。相反，在情形 PP 和 EP 下面的城市的生长将消费不太自然的资源土地并且在预言时期期间显示出一个相对紧缩的城市的发展模式。这研究建议拿紧城市的计划是关键的，管理测量城市的生长到控制未来并且在沈阳城市里保护主要农田和城市的生态学的支持系统。警犬模型是一个有用计划工具指导城市的陆地资源的持续利用到某个程度。

英文摘要：

The SLEUTH urban growth model was used to simulate future urban growth patterns and to explore potential environ-mental impacts of urban development under different conditions of development in Shenyang City, China. The SLEUTH model was calibrated with historical data （1988-2004） extracted from a time series of TM satellite images, and the future growth was pro-jected out to 2030 assuming three different policy scenarios： （1） current trends scenario （Scenario CT）, （2） regional policy and ur-ban planning scenario （Scenario PP）, and （3） environmental protection scenario （Scenario EP）. Scenario analysis showed that urban growth would accelerate under all policy scenarios with significant differences in development pattern and sustainability after 2016. Urban development under Scenario CT would lead to substantial loss of resource lands than that under the other two scenarios, and the urban landscape pattern would be increasingly complex and dispersed. In contrast, urban growth under scenario PP and EP would consume less natural resource land and show a relatively compact urban development pattern during the prediction period. This study suggested that it is crucial to take stringent urban planning and management measures to control future urban growth and to protect primary farmland and the support system of urban ecology in Shenyang City. The SLEUTH model is a useful planning tool to guide sustainable utilization of urban land resources to a certain extent.