中文摘要：

作者总结了用地气图方法进行1995-2004年汛期降水预报的经验教训。10年来各单位的平均得分均为60多分，表明气候预测尚未过关。地气图方法虽然取得了在8大单位中平均排名第一的成绩，但比第二名只多0．4分。表明地气图方法还有很长的路要走。不过它所走的大方向：要考虑岩石圈热力异常对短期气候变化的影响，似乎值得肯定。因为岩石圈与大气圈的耦合作用是气候系统中的一对主要矛盾，而且岩石圈释放的热量有时可达10°～10°W·m^-2的量级，这足以影响到短期气候变化。10年中1995年和2002年本方法预报得分排名为倒数第一，因而对此进行了深入分析。最值得吸取教训的是2002年和2003年。

英文摘要：

Precipitation prediction during flood season based summarized in this paper. The average score of prediction for on ＂Geothermal gases＂ map over the last 10 years is all participants is just higher than 60, which implies that the skill of short-term climate change prediction is still not enough for operational use. ＂Geothermal gases＂ Map method ranks at the top of the participants with limited advantages by 0. 4, indicating that there is much room to further improve this method. At the same time, it is worthwhile to attach more importance to this method because it focuses on the interaction between lithosphere and atmosphere, which is probably the main process of the climate system. The heat flux released from lithosphere could reach as high as 10°-101 W · m^-2 according to some investi gations, which is large enough to cause the effects on short-term climate chahge. Cases in year 1995 and 2002 are analyzed in detail since the performances of this method are poor. In addition, some lessons are mentioned in particular concerning the predictions in year 2002 and 2003.