中文摘要：

次贷危机后，金融衍生品市场的争议不断，相应的对金融衍生品市场的监管提出了更高的要求。国际上出现了以宏观审慎和逆周期为主要内容的监管思路。本文借鉴控制过程理论中的超调量概念，构建了广义预测算法，通过实验，发现该算法能够平衡超调量调整中时间短时会出现大幅度波动的矛盾，提出了基于控制超调量概念的金融衍生品市场监管思路。同时，用超调量概念分析和解释了宏观审慎和逆周期理论，并对其进行了风险的波动时间和幅度匹配上的升华。

英文摘要：

After subprime mortgage crisis, the financial derivatives market is disputed continuously, accord- ingly, supervision to the financial derivatives market is put forward higher request. Internationally, macro prudent and reverse cycle appeared with the main contents of the regulation thinking. Based on overshoot concept in cyber- netics, the generalized prediction algorithm is constructed. The experiment found that the algorithm can balance the contradiction in overshoot adjustment that the short time will accompany with large fluctuations. And then it pro- posed financial derivatives market supervision idea based on the concept of control overshoot. At the same time, by use of the overshoot, it analyzed and interpreted the macro prudent and reverse cycle theory and sublimated the matching of risk fluctuations in time and amplitude.