中文摘要：

基于安徽省1990—2015年数据,采用向量自回归（VAR）模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等统计方法,从城镇化、工业化、农业现代化、信息化和绿色化（以下简称＂五化＂）的角度研究促进安徽省农村居民收入增长的可能路径。研究发现：（1）＂五化＂协同发展与农村居民收入间存在长期均衡关系,但＂五化＂间的协调程度不高,短期内影响力有限。（2）信息化、城镇化总体上会带来32.7326%、11.28629%的贡献率,对农村居民收入有显著的促进作用;工业化和农业现代化均引起了农村居民收入正的响应,且影响农村居民收入增长的步调较一致;绿色化短期内会引起农村居民收入幅度较小的波动,绿色化为农村居民带来的经济效益不显著。安徽省可通过加大绿色化创新,发挥绿色化的生态效益;大力推进＂五化＂协调发展,通过以信带工,以工促农,城乡结合的方式促进农村经济和农民收入的增长。

英文摘要：

Based on the time series data of Anhui province from 1990 to 2015,this paper used vector autoregressive （VAR） to explore the possibibities of promoting the income growth of rural residents in Anhui province,approaching it from five appects： urbanization,industrialization,agricultural modernization,informatization and greenification （hereinafter referred to as ＂five-modernization＂） . It is concluded that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between collaborative development of the ＂five-modernization＂and incomes of rural residents,though it is not statistically significant in short-run. Informationization and urbanization bring about 32.7326% and 11.28629% of the contribution rate respectively,which show they both have profound effects on incomes of rural residents,the positive shocks on industrialization and agricultural modernization lead to positive responses of income of rural residents,which are noticeable in step,while a positive shock on greenization causes a statistically significant income fluctuation,which means there is no valid economic benefits. Therefore,it is suggested that we could focus on the green innovation and enjoy the ecological benefits,vigorously promote coordinated development of the＂ five-modernization＂,and properly utilize information technology to promote industrialization,then to promote agricultural modernization,ultimately to increase noticeable income growth of rural residents,with the combination of town and country.