中文摘要：

随着中国民航的快速发展,机场场面交通流量快速增长,航空器滑行冲突已给机场运行安全造成了严重的隐患,而这种安全隐患在枢纽机场表现尤为突出。为有效分析机场场面的安全隐患,将贝叶斯网络模型引入航空器滑行冲突的安全评价中。通过分析事故发生的原因和过程,构建关于航空器滑行道交叉冲突事故的故障树,依据转换算法,建立基于贝叶斯网络的航空器滑行道交叉冲突事故模型。根据某枢纽机场的历史安全事故样本和文献回顾的方式,运用经验分析法和专家打分法,给出该模型根节点的先验概率,通过双向推理技术和灵敏度分析进行事故的预测和诊断,找到影响航空器滑行安全的主要因素,提出防范措施。借助GeNIe软件计算各节点后验概率值,结果有效合理。

英文摘要：

With the rapid development of civil aviation, the heavy airport surface traffic flow may cause serious safety hazard to the operation of airport. As is known, this problem is more serious in hub airports. In order to analyze the safety hazard of airport surface effectively, the Bayesian network model is applied to the safety evaluation of aircraft taxiing conflict. By analyzing the factors that cause safety accidents, the fault tree of aircraft intersection conflicting accident on taxiway is put forward. Then the Bayesian network model of this accident is established based on FTA according to the transformation algorithm. Before the analysis, according to the historical recording of one hub airport＇ s safety accidents and the review of references, the prior probability of root nodes are derived by utilizing empirical analysis method and expert grading method. Then, the GeNie software is used to calculate the posteriori probability values of different nodes. Two-way reasoning technology and sensitivity analysis are used to predict and diagnose accidents. As a result, we can find out the key factors of aircraft taxiing system and propose corresponding measures so as to reduce the accident rate. Finally, the analysing results show that the factors which have greater influence on the aircraft taxiing safety are training and management factors, pavement layout factors. Therefore the airport departments should pay more attention to them emphatically. In conclusion, a comprehensive application of diagnostic reasoning and causal reasoning is used to achieve a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis of aircraft taxiing safety.