基于“双十一”网购的微观调查数据,以1811位大学生为研究对象,利用二元选择模型分析了消费者行为与从众效应。实证分析表明,相对于室友没有参加“双十一”购物的受访大学生而言,室友的参加会使得受访大学生参加“双十一”的概率提高至少36%。在使用工具变量估计和加权处理之后,该结果仍然在1‰的水平下显著。此外,研究发现,当面临同龄人压力影响时,没有网购经验的大学生改变了他们参与意愿低的初衷,甚至比有网购经验的大学生参加“双十一”购物的概率高出30%-40%。
Based on the micro survey data of the "double eleven" online shopping, this paper takes 1811 college students as the research objects and tries to analyze the consumer behavior and bandwagon effect with the binary choice model. The empirical results show that compared with those interviewed students whose roommates didn't participate in the "double eleven" online shopping, the participation of their roommates would increase at least 36% of the probability of the interviewed stu- dents to participate in the "double eleven" online shopping. When estimated with the instrumental variable and treated with weighted approach, the results are still significant under the 1%o level. In addition, it is found that when faced with peer pressure, the college students who had no online shopping experience would change their original intention of low participation willingness, and even the probability of their participation would be 30%-40% higher than those students who had the ex- perience of participating in the "double eleven" online shopping.