中文摘要：

在这，学习，氮的表演和在一个照原尺寸的靠近环的生物反应器(氧化阴沟) 的磷移动系统用 ASM2d 模型被模仿。描述这进程二年的平淡的数据为刻度和确认被编。克服 identifiability 问题，经典贝叶斯的推理途径为参数评价被利用。校准的模型能描述滋养的移动的长期的趋势和过程表演的短期的变化，证明贝叶斯的方法是为激活的污泥模型的参数评价的一个可靠、有用的工具。由积累有机体(PAO ) 的 polyphosphate 的缺氧的磷酸盐举起贡献了 71.2% 全部的息肉存储，它揭示在限制的氧下面的磷移动过程调节的从的优势。它被发现 58.7% 缺氧的息肉存储，由在反应堆的 PAO 的 denitrification 在充气分隔空间被完成，暗示 PAO 缺氧的活动被低溶解的氧显著地刺激() 在由于氧，坡度由刷子通风装置引起了的这分隔空间的水平。

英文摘要：

In this study, the performance of nitrogen and phosphorus removal in a full-scale closed-loop bioreactor （oxidation ditch） system was simulated using the ASM2d model. Routine data describing the process for two years were compiled for calibration and validation. To overcome the identifiability problem, the classic Bayesian inference approach was utilized for parameter estimation. The calibrated model could describe the long-term trend of nutrient removal and short-term variations of the process performance, showing that the Bayesian method was a reliable and useful tool for the parameter estimation of the activated sludge models. The anoxic phosphate uptake by polyphosphate accumulating organisms （PAO） contributed 71.2% of the total Poly-P storage, which reveals the dominance of denitrifying phosphorus removal process under the oxygen limiting conditions. It was found that 58.7% of the anoxic Poly-P storage and denitrification by PAO in the reactor was achieved in the aerated compartment, implying that the PAO＇s anoxic activity was significantly stimulated by the low dissolved oxygen （DO） level in this compartment due to the oxygen gradient caused by brush aerator.