中文摘要：

人群聚集场所发生的拥挤踩踏事故往往发生突然、难以控制，并极易造成群死群伤的恶劣后果．人群安全管理和控制是有效防止拥挤踩踏事故发生的重要手段，研究和开发监测人群运动状态并识别拥挤踩踏事故风险的算法和软件系统将有助于管理部门在事中阶段针对突发风险采取及时有效的处置措施，降低事故损失和人员伤亡．本文利用MATLAB GUI（Graphical User Interfaces）开发平台设计并实现了具有图形用户界面的算法，用于分析和计算视频中人群聚集可能导致的拥挤踩踏事故风险，主要采用基于互相关算法的速度特征提取方法，并使用速度方差等参数进行风险的表征，从而在时间和空间上对拥挤踩踏事故风险进行实时分析和事前预警．最后使用该算法对上海踩踏事故监控视频进行了实际应用，验证了其适用性．该算法将为人群聚集场所的安全管理提供更加充分可靠的信息支撑，提升现有的人群聚集场所安全管理水平．

英文摘要：

A stampede in a crowded place has the character of sudden occurrence and difficult control, which is liable to big casualties. Crowd management and control are important methods to effectively prevent the occurrence of stampede accident. Research and development for methods and systems for monitoring crowd motion status and identifying risks of stampede accident will contribute to timely and effective intervention measures taken by administration in the course. Thus accident loss and casualties can be reduced. In this paper, a software with a graphical user interface is designed and applied using MATLAB GUI （Graphical User Interfaces） to analyze and calculate risks of stampede accident caused by gathered crowds in the video. A velocity extraction method based on cross-correlation algorithm is adopted, and the risk characteristic parameters such as velocity variance is also applied. In this way, real- time analysis and early-warning for risks of stampede accident in time and space can be achieved. Also, the algorithm is applied to the surveillance video of the stampede in Shanghai and its feasibility is proved. The algorithm will provide solid information support for safety management in crowded places, improving the existing management level.