中文摘要：

蒸散量的变化是地表热量和水量平衡中直接受气候变化影响的重要一项,文中采用PenmanMonteith公式计算潜在蒸散量,利用小波分析、Mann-Kendall法等多种统计方法对新疆干旱区玛纳斯河流域近60年蒸散量进行了定量分析。结果表明：玛纳斯河流域多年平均蒸散量为1521.43mm,年蒸散量的增加幅度为15.8mm/10年,在近60年呈现增多-减少-增多-减少的变化趋势,2005年为突变点,18年为蒸散量变化的震荡主周期,通过降水量、温度、风速和蒸散量的相关性分析表明,温度升高是蒸散量增加的主要原因,气温和风速是影响玛纳斯河流域潜在蒸散量的主要因素,降水量对蒸散量的影响最小。

英文摘要：

The change of evapotranspiration is an important factor directly affected by climate change in the surface heat and water balance. In this study, we used the Penman - Monteith equation to calculate potential evapotranspiration, and utilized variety statistical methods to quantitatively analyze the evapotranspiration of Manas River basin of Xinjiang in the arid area during the past 60 years. The results show that the annual mean evapotranspiration of Manas River Basin was 1521.43mm. The rate of evapotranspiration increase was 15.8mm/10 years. In nearly 60 years, the diversification trends was ＂increase - decrease - increase - decrease＂ , it was an abrupt point in 2005. The main cycle of evapotranspiration change was 18 years. Correlation analysis among precipitation, temperature, wind speed and evapotranspiration showed that the increase of evapotranspiration mainly was due to the increase of temperature; temperature and wind speed were the major factors affecting the potential evapotranspiration of Manas River Basin, precipitation minimally impacted on evapotranspiration.