房地产市场在货币政策传导中发挥着日益重要的作用,尤其体现在区域层面。本文采用2001~2010年中国30个省市地区的数据,构建全局向量自回归模型分析了货币政策与区域经济和房地产市场的动态关系,并探讨房地产对货币政策传导效应的区域性差异。结果表明,各地区对货币供应量冲击呈现相似的响应特征,货币供应量的增长会推动各地区工业产出和房地产投资,但在长期上会抑制社会消费和房价,且中部地区的受影响程度最低。利率上涨冲击对各地区经济和房地产市场具有异质性影响,东部地区的响应特征更贴近紧缩性货币政策目标。房地产对货币政策传导效应存在明显的区域差异,东部地区的传导效应显著高于中西部地区,而货币供应量的传导效应超过利率。
Real estate market has played increasingiy important role in monetary policy transmission, especially on regional level. In this paper, we use 2001 - 2010 monthly data of 30 provincial districts in China, establish the global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to analyze the dynamic relationships among monetary policy, regional economy and real estate market, and then explore the regional disparities in the transmission of mone- tary policy through real estate. The resuh indicates that, each region presents the similar feature in response to the money supply shock which promotes the industrial output and real estate investment, but inhibits the house- hold consumption and real estate price, and the central region has the lowest response level. The interest rate shock imposes heterogeneous impacts on regional economy and real estate market, the response of the eastern region is consistent with the objectives of contractionary monetary policy. Real estate presents evident regional disparities in monetary policy transmission process, the conduction effect in the eastern region is higher than other regions, and the conduction of money supply is superior to that of interest rate.