中文摘要：

在春季防火期内按林型内凋落物的不同空间位置的分类标准采集白桦林的地表死可燃物,并依此放入由小到大的铁丝网中,在室内进行试验,记录数据,对两种林型分别采用Nelson模型和Simard模型作为平衡含水率对温湿度响应模型,使用直接估计法对地表死可燃物的含水率结果进行了预测。结果表明：（1）基于Nelson模型的可燃物含水率预测误差往往小于基于Simard模型,一般来说基于Nelson模型的含水率预测效果要好于使用Simard模型预测含水率效果。但是,对于白桦林的腐殖质和混合可燃物则两者相差不大,预测效果都比较好,误差要求在3%以内都可以使用;（2）对于白桦林内凋落物及半腐殖质,误差要求在3%以内时,使用Nelson模型预测可燃物含水率的预测精度要更好;（3）白桦林内不同层可燃物含水率的预测精度由高到低依次为：混合可燃物、腐殖质、半腐殖质和凋落物。由于试验在室内进行,尽最大可能减少可外界误差影响,因此可以作为使用直接估计法预测白桦林含水率模型误差的最低值。

英文摘要：

Sort by type of litter within forest fire in the spring collection during the different spatial locations birch surface dead fuel, and so put steeled barbed wire, and in the indoor test, recording data, for two forest types were used to model and Nelson Simard model as the equilibrium moisture content of the temperature and humidity response model, using the direct estimation of the surface dead fuel moisture content of the results were predictable. The results showed that： （1） In general moisture Nelson models predict the effect is better than using Simard based model to predict the effect of moisture content. However, birch humus and mixed fuel is little difference between the predicted effects are better, the error requires less than 3% can be used （2） to the inner birch litter and humus and a half, the error requires 3% When within, using Nelson model predicts fuel moisture prediction accuracy is better （3） the prediction accuracy of the different layers within the birch forest fuel moisture in descending order： mixing combustible, humus, humus and litter half. As the pilot in the room, it may be outside the maximum extent possible to reduce the error influence, and therefore can be used as direct estimation method to predict the mois~re content as low as birch model error.