中文摘要：

以和田河为研究对象,根据和田河流域1953-2014年径流数据,以及和田气象站的降水（0.1 mm）、气温、湿度（1%）同时段的数据,采用Mann-kendall突变检验、功率谱分析方法及模比系数差积法分析了和田河流域的气候和径流特征,同时采用标准化方法分析气候因子以及利用逐步回归分析法计算出每个气候因子对径流的影响系数,结果表明：和田河流域降水变化不显著,流域温度变化显著性高。降水变化的周期是5 a、突变年份是2001年,温度变化的周期是13 a、突变年份是1997年。和田河径流有波动上升的趋势,倾向率为0.3123,标准化之后变差系数是0.28,说明径流年际变化比较大且不稳定。计算气候因子对径流的相关性,得出温度对径流的相关系数最大,为0.437,建立回归方程,得出当和田河流域温度偏多或偏少2%时,和田河年径流量会偏多3.2%或偏少0.8%。气候变化对流域径流的影响主要是气温引起的。

英文摘要：

According to the Hotan River Basin data segment runoff data from1953 to 2014, and Wada weather precipitation （0.1mm）, air temperature, humidity （ 1% ） , the Mann-kendall mutation test, power spectrum analysis method and mold the coefficient differential quadrature method are used to analyze climate and runoff characteristics of the Hotan River Basin. The results show that Hotan River changes in rainfall are not significant, watershed temperature varies significantly. Precipitation changes every five years, the year 2001 mutated, the temperature change every 13 years, the year 1997 mutated. Hotan River runoff fluctuations represented an upward trend at the rate of 0.312 3, after standardization variation coefficient was 0.28, indicating that runoff inter-annual variability is relatively large and unstable. The Hotan River annual runoff is a little more than 3.2% or 0.8% less than the normal. The impact of climate change on runoff is mainly caused by temperature.