企业过度投资是产能过剩的直接原因,由此带来的效率损失是经济发展方式转变和产业结构调整过程中需要解决的重要问题。本文以国有企业过度投资形成的制度背景为依据,测算和比较了2003—2014年中国31个省份国有工业企业过度投资水平,构建联立方程模型检验政府干预下国有企业过度投资、地区经济增长和生产效率损失三者之间的内在关系,进而选择差分内差分方法评价了政府为应对2008年全球金融危机实施的"一揽子计划"的政策效果。结果表明:国有企业过度投资的现象普遍存在,尤其在2008年之后更为严重;地方政府干预动机越强,国有企业的过度投资问题越突出,尽管国有企业过度投资对地区经济增长具有显著的正效应,但也造成了生产效率损失;作为政府干预经济的集中表现,"一揽子计划"极大地激化了国有企业的过度投资行为,虽然避免了经济增长快速下滑,却加重了国有企业的效率损失。
Excessive investment is the direct cause of overcapacity, and the resulting loss of productivity has become a major issue to solve in economic development mode change and industrial restructuring. On the basis of the institutional background of state-owned enterprise over-investment, we measure the level of excessive investment of state-owned industrial enterprises from 2003 to 2014, and establish a simultaneous equations model to test the interactive relationship between state- owned enterprises overinvestment, efficiency loss and regional economic development under the government intervention, then we examine the policy effect of the government"package plan" which in response to the international financial crisis in 2008 by the difference in difference method. The results show that, state-owned enterprises over-investment phenomenon is widespread, especially more serious after 2008. The government intervention motivation is stronger, the over-investment of state-owned enterprises is more prominent, although the over-investment has significant positive effects to regional economic development, but also results in loss of productivity. As the concentrated expression of government intervention in the economy,"package plan " greatly stimulated the overinvestment behavior of state-owned enterprises, although avoided the rapid decline in economic growth, but increased the efficiency losses of state-owned enterprises.