我国月度经济景气从2015年第4季度开始出现止跌企稳态势,2016年第4季度至2017年可能在“偏冷”区内继续保持大体平稳的运行态势。短期内经济景气再次降温进入“过冷”区间的可能性较小。预测2016年GDP增长率将达到6.7%左右,CPI上涨率为2%左右,经济景气和物价波动继续呈现“新常态”下的“微波化”特征。
The economic climate has stopped downward trend since 2015Q4 and is expected to keep roughly stable in the "partial cold" range from 2016Q4 to 2017. It is unlikely oriented downwards and step into the "cold" state in a short time. We predict that the GDP growth rate would reach about 6.7% in 2016, and meanwhile the annual inflation rate would be about 2%. Economic and inflation cycle would be also featured with wavelet in the "new normal" stage.