中文摘要：

针对城市多水源供水调度系统中存在的不确定性和复杂性问题,将基于可信性理论的模糊规划与区间规划融入两阶段随机规划框架中,构建了基于可信性约束的区间两阶段随机规划的城市供水调度优化模型。该模型用区间数、随机变量和模糊参数等形式,有效表征了系统目标函数和约束中存在的多态不确定性,模拟了不确定条件下的城市供水调度过程,并对随机过程产生的风险进行了追索。通过模型运算,得到不同可信度水平下的稳定区间解,可为城市供水管理者提供不同情景下的决策方案,帮助其规避供水缺水风险。

英文摘要：

Aiming at the uncertainty and complexity existed in urban multi- sources water supply dispatch system,the fuzzy programming and interval programming of credibility theory are integrated in two- stage stochastic programming frame,and the two- stage stochastic programming optimal urban water supply dispatch model is developed based on credibility constraint. The uncertainties in the objective function and constraint can be expressed by interval number,stochastic variables and fuzzy parameters of the model,so as to simulate the urban water supply process under uncertain condition,and the risk in the stochastic process is searched for. The stable interval solutions under different credibility are obtained through model computation,which can provide schemes for decision- makers and avoid the water shortage risk.