中文摘要：

利用信度理论方法研究了具有时间变化效应的风险保费的估计问题.结论表明,具有时间变化效应的信度模型,其信度估计仍然是个体索赔数据与聚合保费的加权平均,且信度因子依赖时间变化效应,从而推广了经典的信度原理.

英文摘要：

The credibility premiums with time changeable effects are derived by means of credibility theory methods. Conclusions show that credibility estimator of the credibility models with time changeable effects can still be expressed as weighted sums of claim data and collective premium, and the credibility factor depends on the time changeable effects. Thus the classical credibility theory is generalized.