基于杭州内河水运实证数据,利用Eviews、SPSS、GIS软件构建模型,探究内河水运与腹地交通、空间、经济的相关性。结果为:内河水运对城镇交通、城镇空间、腹地经济具有显著的正效应,但反馈的形式迥异,且腹地经济对内河水运的影响有限。结论为:规模经济交易成本与公共品红利的公共选择,决定了内河水运与腹地相关度的差异,也表现为城镇交通与经济的转型成效,更造就了城市基本经济部类与非基本部类的主从关系。提出,宜通过"交通—空间—经济"综合措施,建构现代低碳的内河水运交通体系,优化港城一体的空间组织方式,培育以需定供的非基本经济部类。
Using the software of Eviews,SPSS and GIS,this study develops a model to examine the correlation of waterway and inland traffic-space-economy,based on a survey of Hangzhou. The results show that,waterway has positively significant effect on inland traffic-space-economy,while the opposite effect fails. The underlying conclusions manifest that,cost of scale economy and bonus of public goods determines the correlation of waterway and inland. These findings suggest that,waterway and inland will be optimized by "traffic-space-economy"measures,which contains establishing modern waterway communication,ameliorating spatial organization and cultivating non-basic economic category.