0 引言 国内外电力系统曾多次发生过大停电事故。这些大停电事故往往是由于系统中某一元件故障,导致其他相关元件停运,这种连锁反应快速蔓延,最终发生电网崩溃。该类事故发生的概率虽然不大,但危害很大,因此,对这类连锁反应事故和大停电机理开展研究非常重要…。长期以来,电力系统动态行为分析通常是先建立起系统中各元件的详细数学模型,通过应用计算机仿真技术来得到系统的解。这种分析方法本质上属于还原论的分析方法,在深入分析电力系统连锁故障和大面积停电机理等系统临界动力学行为方面已经体现出明显的局限性,难以揭示出系统的整体动态行为特征,迫切需要发展新的分析方法来研究电力系统的动态行为。
Over the last decade, a number of power grid blackouts caused by cascading failures have occurred. Such incidents induced great concerns on the grid security and prompted people to investigate the mechanism of power system cascading failures. In recent years, the study on complex system theory, especially the study of complex network theory has made important developments. Applying the complex system theory to analyze the blackouts and the cascading failure propagation mechanism provides a new perspective for us to understand the complexity of electric grid as a whole and to discuss the corresponding dynamic behavior. This article reviewed the researches on modeling cascading failures and grid vulnerability analysis in recent years from the aspects of the complex network, self-organized criticality and coupling relationship of power grid and communications network, and pointed out some important research topics and directions.