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中文摘要：
当前中国经济外需紧缩、出口受阻的现实使人民币汇率变动的贸易效应再次成为理论界和政策界关注的热点问题。基于1981-2006年SITC标准分类的产业数据，本文运用协整与误差修正模型对人民币汇率变化影响出口贸易结构进行了研究。结果表明，人民币实际汇率的高低在决定出口绩效方面具有非常重要的影响，人民币汇率变化对出口额的影响无论长期还是短期都是显著的；人民币汇率波动对出口分类影响存在较大差异，按影响程度的大小依次为制造业的劳动密集型产品、资本和技术密集型产品、食品和资源密集型产品。
英文摘要：
Under the condition that China＇s external demand has been soft and the export expansion is held up, the trade effect of exchange rate volatility has been a theoretical and policy focus again. Based on the industrial data divided by SITC from 1981 to 2006, this paper analyzes the influence of exchange rate volatility on the export trade structure using cointegaration and VECM model. The result shows that the exchange rate level of Renminbi has important influence on the export performance of China, and the exchange rate volatility has both a short and long term effect on the export. The effects on different industries based on STIC are different, with the export of labor-intensive products affected most seriously, followed by capital-intensive products, food products and resources products in succession.
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