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A NON-LINEAR MODEL FOR ESTIMATING THE COST OF ACHIEVING EMISSION REDUCTION TARGETS： THE CASE OF THE U.S., CHINA AND INDIA

ISSN号：1004-3756
期刊名称：《系统科学与系统工程学报：英文版》
时间：0
分类：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计;理学—数学]
作者机构：[1]Center for Energy & Environmental Policy Research, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China, [2]Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, SE 40530 G teborg, Sweden
相关基金：This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 70825001, 71210005 and 71273253; and Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant No. XDA05150700.

作者： Lei ZHU[1], Xiao-Bing ZHANG[1,2], Ying FAN[1]

关键词：发展中国家, 非线性模型, 成本估算, 碳减排, 印度, 美国, 节能, 成本最小化, Emission reduction, cost analysis, emission reduction strategy, optimization model

中文摘要：

与谈论气候的世界，变化，美国(美国) ，中国和印度宣布了他们的碳排放减小目标。这三个国家完成他们的目标，重要问题产生例如将是完成那些目标的年度排放减小努力的，它将花费多少并且什么将是经济效果。这份报纸把中国和印度的碳紧张减小目标放进和美国的绝对排放减小目标一样的非线性的模型到最佳的排放控制策略和联系总数为在一年 2020 完成那些目标花费了的份量上学习，并且估计并且比较三个国家的最小化的全部的费用到达他们的目标。我们总数花费了让美国完成它的排放减小目标的结果表演以绝对数量比中国和印度的那些大。以到 GDP 的全部的费用的比例，然而，中国和印度比率比美国的显著地大，显示为象中国和印度那样的发展中的国家，排放减小目标的成就需要相对更大的努力。

英文摘要：

With the world talking about climate change, the United States （U.S.）, China and India have announced their carbon emission reduction targets. For these three countries to achieve their targets, significant questions arise, shch as what will be the annual emission reduction efforts to achieve those targets, how much it would cost and what would be the economic effects. This paper puts the carbon intensity reduction targets of China and India together with the absolute emission reduction target of the U.S. into the same non-linear model to quantitatively study the optimal emission control strategies and associated total cost for achieving those targets by the year 2020, and estimate and compare the minimized total costs of the three countries to reach their targets. Our results show that the total cost for the U.S. to achieve its emission reduction target is greater than those of China and India in terms of absolute amount. However, in terms of proportion of total cost to GDP, China and India＇s ratios are significantly greater than that of the U.S., indicating that for the developing countries such as China and India, the achievement of emission reduction targets needs relatively greater effort.

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